Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
