Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
